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biznesidei.bg » Новини » Според експерт нова рецесия ще настъпи след 2 г.

Според експерт нова рецесия ще настъпи след 2 г.

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Според експерт нова рецесия ще настъпи след 2 г.
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Равнището на безработицата вече е рекордно ниско – 3,7 на стп. Възнагражденията растат все по-бързо, както и инфлацията. Федералният резерв не спира да повишава лихвените проценти. Всичко това показва, че световната икономика вече достига точката на прегряване. Това посочва в свой материал за телевизия CNN главният икономист в Moody Analistics Марк Занди.

По негово менение вече настъпва моментът да говорим за следваща рецесия, която ще настъпи през лятото на 2020 г.
 
Единият от индикаторите за нея моментът, в който икономиката премине през „пълна заетост“. Икономистите от много време коментират значението на "пълната заетост", но по-голямата част от тях са единодушни, че дял от 4,5 на сто трудещи се е здравословото равнище - т.нар. „естествено ниво на безработица“.
 
Когато равнищата на безработица се понижат естествените си показатели, бизнесът започва да увеличава възнагражденията на своите рабпотници и служители, което пък свива печалбите му. От това се покачват цените за крайните потребители и съответно нараства инфлацията. Тя именно е причината Фед да затегне паричната си политика и да повиши лихвените проценти.
 
Фед се надява, че затягането на политиката ще е достатъчно да върне равнищата на безработицата до естествени показатели. Това, обаче, се явява много подвеждащ процес с рядко успешни резултати.
 
Проблемът тук е, че когато безработицата започне да се покачва, дори от значително ниско ниво, порочният кръг бързо се завърта. Повишените ѝ равнища принуждават потребителите да бъдат по-внимателни, когато правят бъдещи разходи. Бизнесът от своя страна вижда това и назначава по-малко кадри. Равнищата на безработица започват все повече да се покачват. Потребителите и бизнесът пък се отдръпват, което неизменно води до влошаване на икономическите показатели.
 
Имайки предвид огромните фискални стимули, като въвеждането на финансирани от бюджетния дефицит данъчни облекчения, равнището на безработица може да се понижи до 3 на сто до края на десетилетието. Случи ли се това, Фед ще бъде принуден да повиши процентите до 4,5 без това реално да води до негативни икономически последици.
 
Ако се вгледаме в предходните случаи, оказва се, че отнема 3 години от пълна заетост до последваща рецесия. Броят на безработните лица се понижи под нормалните граници от 4,5 на сто през лятото на 2017 г., поради което нова криза може да се очаква през лятото на 2020 г.

Списание Съветник Данъци и такси на моята фирма
Списание Съветник Данъци и такси на моята фирма

Повече детайли тук

Настолeн данъчно-осигурителен календар за 2019-та
Настолeн данъчно-осигурителен календар за 2019-та

Повече детайли тук

Сделки с недвижими имоти на строителното предприятие
Сделки с недвижими имоти на строителното предприятие

Повече детайли тук


 
източник: expert.bg

Tags: безработицазаетострецесия

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